A consumer decision-making aid for electricity purchases by possibility regression and fuzzy decision

TitleA consumer decision-making aid for electricity purchases by possibility regression and fuzzy decision
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication1999
AuthorsNiimura, T., T. Nakashima, and K. Ozawa
Conference NameSystems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1999. IEEE SMC '99 Conference Proceedings. 1999 IEEE International Conference on
Pagination1019 -1023 vol.3
Keywordsbilateral contract, bilateral transactions, consumer choice, consumer decision-making aid, consumer preferences, contracts, costing, decision theory, deregulated environment, direct supplier-consumer transactions, economic cybernetics, electricity prices, electricity purchases, electricity retail consumers, electricity supply industry, fixed price, fuzzy decisions, fuzzy numbers, fuzzy set, fuzzy set theory, gaming, market-based purchases, offered price, possibility regression, possibility theory, power exchange market, preference index, price differential, price range, purchasing, speculation, statistical analysis, time series, uncertain market prices

Introduces a decision-making aid for retail consumers of electricity who now have a choice of bilateral transactions and market-based purchases under the recent deregulated environment. Direct transactions between a supplier and the consumer may become attractive in some situations because of a fixed price, while in a power exchange market, gaming and speculation by participants may push up electricity prices unacceptably. In this approach, uncertain market prices are represented by a set of fuzzy numbers containing the highest/lowest price range in a time series. The consumer's somewhat vague preferences are also defined by a separate fuzzy set. The differences in the offered price for a bilateral contract and the market prices are compared with a preference index. The overall grade of matching the price differential and the consumer's preference indicates the value of the offered price for the bilateral transaction. Numerical examples illustrate the procedure of this approach


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